Warm final days of summer; weekend rain looking more likely

Summerlike temps this week, rain likely by the weekend.
Published: Sep. 19, 2023 at 3:30 PM CDT|Updated: Sep. 19, 2023 at 6:27 PM CDT
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Summertime is holding on until the very end! The rest of this week will be sunny with well above average high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. By the weekend, our pattern will change as a slow-moving low-pressure system brings the potential for some heavy rain. After that, we will shift to a more fall-like weather pattern that will carry us through much of next week.

Tuesday was sunny and warm with highs in the low to mid 80s. There will be plenty of sunshine through Friday, and though high temperatures will remain well above average, they will be a couple of degrees cooler each day, dropping into the mid to upper 70s by Friday.

A low-pressure system will move out of the Rockies on Friday and settle across the central US over the weekend. High pressure to our east will prevent the system from moving, which means it will hang around and bring multiple rounds of rain on Saturday and Sunday. Because we are still four to five days away, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in regard to where the low will track and how long it will stick around. These two criteria will be the determining factors in how much rain we ultimately get.

As of now, the most likely scenario is off and on steady rain through the weekend with a half inch to an inch or more across much of southern Minnesota and higher amounts across eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. There are two more unlikely but possible scenarios we are also considering. The first is the system tracking further south and limiting our rain to scattered showers and thundershowers which would mean limited, localized rain. The second is a northerly track which would bring much heavier rainfall amounts in the one to two-plus inch range. Our data should start to align more consistently over the next couple of days. When that happens, we will be able to fine-tune the forecast and be more specific with the rain forecast. Stay tuned; we will definitely have updates as things develop.

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